NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

It’s Week 4 already? Seems like just yesterday we were watching Hard Knocks to see Andre Smith and his manrack break an ankle after spending oh about .2 seconds on the practice field and making a note to fade the Bungals all season long. Now, Cincy is 2-1 with wins at Green Bay and vs. Pittsburgh, and just that freak Brandon Stockley play away from being 3-0. As nearly a touchdown favorite on the road this week, Cincy can breath easy. But for the rest of the league, this is when things start to get interesting. Week 4 is all about going into full panic mode (see: Titans, Tennessee and Panthers, Carolina) or an unreasonable and unwise state of confidence (see: Broncos, Denver and Jets, New York). Let’s take a look at some of this week’s more intriguing matchups:

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Indianapolis Colts -10.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Indy looked awfully vulnerable against Miami a couple weeks back and, if you were like me, you made a note to jump all over any half decent team whenever you saw an inflated line. So, here we are, Colts as double-digit favorites against Seattle. Go with the ‘hawks and their hideous uniforms, right? Um, no. Seattle is banged up like nobody’s business this week. Hassellbeck and Walter Jones are out, and practically the entire Seattle secondary is either playing hurt or out. Not exactly what you want heading into Indy against Payton and a Colts team that looks like it might have found its mojo.

Prediction: Colts 28 – Seahwaks 10

New England Patriots -2 vs. Baltimore Ravens

While Favre vs. Green Bay is getting all the hype, this is quietly one heck of an early-season matchup. Baltimore found an offense. Not the best news for the rest of the league. Meanwhile, it suddenly seems like ages ago that the Patriots were three touchdown favorites against playoff-caliber teams. Yet, Tom Brady is starting to get comfortable in the pocket and New England still has some weapons on offense, despite the injury to Wes Welker, who is listed as questionable this week. Their defense, however, is not looking as solid. Jerrod Mayo remains out with a knee injury and Vince Wilfork is listed as questionable. With the Ravens running on all cylinders and the Patriots seemingly primed to get run over, this one might look to many like a classic trap game. Maybe my mind is just too simple, but I’m going with what I see on paper. Especially if I’m getting two points.

Prediction: Baltimore 24 – New England 17

Buffalo Bills -2.5 at Miami Dolphins

Is it just me, or is this one of the most interesting matchups of two solidly mediocre teams we’ve seen in a long, long time? The Bills looked pretty darn impressive in their opening day loss against the Patriots, then blew out a lousy Tampa team at home, only to fall apart offensively against the Saints last week. Meanwhile, Miami did just about everything other than win the game against the Colts a couple weeks back, but, now, all of sudden are without their quarterback and, at 0-3, look like they might be on the brink of a major tank job. Still, the Dolphins do have a solid defense and the Wildcat continues to be effective. And – I guarantee you more than one Dolphins player is thinking “if we’re ever gonna get a win, this is the week.” On the injury front, Buffalo comes is considerably more banged up than the Miami. Safety Bryan Scott (ankle) and Cornerback Terrence McGee (ankle) are both listed as questionable and Safety Donte Whitner (thumb) is doubtful, meaning this could be the perfect game for Chad Henne to get comfortable as the Dolphins starting QB.

Prediction: Miami 17 – Buffalo 14

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Denver Broncos

This line is all about beliefs. Do you believe the Broncos are as good as their 3-0 record and the Cowboys are as average as they have looked in their first three games? If so, you’re not gonna get value like this every day, so jump all over that Broncos moneyline. Or, do you believe the Broncos record is a fluke aided by one crazy play and three not-so-juggernautish opponents and that the Cowboys are finally starting to wake up and play to their talent level? If you believe that then if there was ever a week to risk your entire bank roll on one game, this is it. Personally, I just don’t see Kyle Orton leading the Broncos to a winning record. The Broncos don’t have the Bears’ defense. They need to score points to win. And call me crazy, but I think the Cowboys are secretly pretty happy to be playing on the road this week. I can only imagine how annoying Jerry Jones must have been these past few weeks. You know he was getting in all the players’ ears about the importance of playing well in front of those huge crowds at that ridiculous new stadium. Now, they can go on the road and just focus on playing football. DeMarcus Ware has been a no-show so far, but that’s going to change this week. The Broncos o-line has been mediocre and is primed to get manhandled by Ware and Jay Ratliff.

Prediction: Dallas 35 – Denver 13