NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round: Matchups, Predictions, Spreads

Week two of the NFL Playoffs features some compelling matchups and even more interesting betting lines. The Tennessee Titans dominated the regular season (13-3 overall, 12-4 ATS), but were never really taken seriously as the best team in the league. Now they have to play host to a nasty and red-hot Baltimore Ravens team that could care less about playing another road playoff game. If the Titans win and cover the spread (-3 at the time of this post), it would validate their regular season performance and all of a sudden make them the favorite coming out of the AFC, but a loss would give credence to all those who said they weren’t as good as their record. The other AFC matchup sees the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting a San Diego Chargers team that squeaked into the playoffs (8-8 overall, 7-8-1 ATS), but then last week beat a Colts team that had won nine straight and was the sexy pick to go all the way. With momentum in San Diego’s favor after pulling off two must wins, and Darren Sproles making everyone forget about LT, many bettors may be tempted to jump on the relatively large spread (Pittsburgh -6 at the time of this post) or even take the Chargers outright.

The NFC matchups don’t seem to be quite as strong, at least not on paper. ESPN will do its best to hype the Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants game, but we’ve already seen them play each other twice this season. Nevertheless, this should be a pretty decent game. Can the Giants find a way to subdue the Eagles’ blitz schemes, something they were unable to do in their late-season regular season matchup? Which Donovan McNabb will show up? The quarterback who has led the Eagles on another late season surge, or the lethargic, turnover-prone McNabb who got benched against the Ravens? Even the spread (Giants -4 at the time of this post) is intriguing. Just high enough to strongly consider the Eagles covering on the road, but just low enough to think you’re getting a great value on the Giants at home. In the other Divisional Round NFC game, the Carolina Panthers host the suddenly not so atrocious Arizona Cardinals. A great Carolina defense against a high-powered Arizona offense. Too bad nobody’s going to watch this one. No, we’ll watch because it’s the NFL playoffs. But this game is completely overshadowed by the other three and is getting absolutely no press. What should be getting some headlines, however, is the spread. Carolina is currently a 10 point home favorite. That’s an awfully big number for a playoff game, especially against a team that showed that it at least might consider running the ball, and, more importantly, could actually stop the run. The Panthers are very similar to the Falcons – everything is setup by that dominate running game. If Arizona can do what it did last week and get the Panthers out of their comfort zone, bettors with the stomach to take them outright at +340 could be in for a very nice payday. Then again, Jake Delhomme is no rookie.

Now let’s take a closer look at each of these NFL Divisional Round matchups.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Game Time: Saturday, January 10 @ 4:30 pm EST

Spread: Tennessee -3, O/U: 34.5

Weather: Mostly Sunny, 52 degrees, light wind from south.

Preview:

Ed Reed. I’m tempted to just leave it at that, but apparently Google likes content, so I’ll add some filler. But seriously, did you notice anybody else on the field in last week’s Ravens/Dolphins game? I’m sure Ray Lewis and the other Ravens’ defensive standouts played great. After all, they totally overwhelmed and dominated Chad Pennington and the Dolphins, but Reed was by far the most visible and impactful player in the game. If he can come close to matching that performance this week against Kerry Collins, the Titans are done. Collins goes into this game with some bad memories against the Ravens as Baltimore dominated Collins and the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. There is some good news for the Titans. Tennessee has already beaten the Ravens once this year(13-10 (Ten -1) on 10/05 at Baltimore),  so they should feel relatively confident, especially with this game at their home field. More importantly, they get Albert Haynesworth back. It’s rare that a defensive tackle is the most important player on a playoff team, but that’s definitely the case with the Titans. They are a completely different team without him in the lineup. As well as Joe Flacco has played, he’s still a rookie and if the Titans can stuff the run and make Flacco try to beat them, they could very well cover the three-point spread and reserve a spot in the conference championship game.

Prediction: Baltimore 17, Tennessee 14

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Game Time: Saturday, January 10 @ 8:15 pm EST

Spread: Carolina -10, O/U: 48.5

Weather: Sunny, 50 degrees, light wind

Preview:

It might not have the subplots of the Chargers vs. Steelers, the high-profile of the Eagles vs. Giants or the throwback, smashmouth allure of the Ravens vs. Titans, but don’t sleep on this one. Carolina (12-4 overall, 9-6-1 ATS) was the #2 seed in the NFC for a reason. They have two dynamic running backs (does anyone outside of Carolina even know or care that Deangelo Williams was the best RB in the league this year?), a veteran QB and a premier playmaker at wide receiver. And their defense isn’t too shabby either, although their overall numbers this year weren’t as impressive as they have been in the past. After seeing the YouTube video of Chris Berman losing it off camera and going off about the power of Canadian painkillers, it wasn’t all that shocking to see him go off on a tirade after the Cardinals’ less-than-stellar performance against the Vikings and Patriots. But still, it’s not easy to get Berman out of his jolly mood, especially when he knows the cameras are rolling, so you know Arizona must have been playing really bad. And they were. But the playoffs are a whole new season, as has been evidenced so many times, including just last year. The Cardinals were a completely different team last week against a strong Atlanta squad. They dusted off Edgerrin James, they completely shutdown Michael Turner and they were able to keep Kurt Warner upright for the entire 60 minutes. But the oddsmakers aren’t buying the transformation. Carolina is laying a hefty 10 points this week (although the early square action is heavy on Arizona, so we could see significant line movement between now and kickoff).

Prediction: Arizona 21, Carolina 35

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Game Time: Sunday, January 11 @ 1:00 pm EST

Spread: Giants -4, O/U: 40

Weather: Light snow, 37 degrees, light wind

Preview:

These NFC East rivals split their two games in the regular season, with both teams winning on the road. The Giants won on 11/9 36-31 (NY +3) and the Eagles won the game following Plaxico-Gate  20-14 on 12/7 (Phi +6.5). If you believe in momentum then the Eagles seem like they have a pretty good shot. They ended the regular season on a tear, winning four out of their last five, including a complete undressing of the Cowboys in a do-or-die game for both teams, and they brought that dominance into Minnesota where they took Tarvaris Jackson to school and contained Adrian Peterson. On the other hand, the Giants had last week off for a reason. They were clearly the best team in the NFC this year, and arguably the best team in the entire NFL. Not to mention they are the defending champions. The loss of Burress definitely hurts as he was a great option in the redzone and someone who always commanded the defense’s attention. The key for the Giants will be protecting Eli Manning. The Eagles ate him up in their December matchup, and the Giants have no chance if that happens again this week.

Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 28

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Game Time: Sunday, January 11 @ 4:45 pm EST

Spread: Steelers -6, O/U: 38

Weather: Snow showers, 35 degrees, wind at 11mph from WSW

Preview:

These two teams played once in the regular season in a game that featured the now infamous Troy Polamalu last second touchdown that wasn’t (this has got to be one of the top 5 last second plays that meant everything to bettors while having no effective on the actual outcome of the game). But what was also significant about that Steelers 11-10 win (San Diego +4.5) on Nov 16 is that it really doesn’t provide many clues about what to expect this week. It was a sloppy game from the opening kickoff to that bizarre final play and it you just can’t expect to see those types of performances in the second round of the playoffs. This matchup is very similar in context to the Eagles/Giants game. One team struggled through the regular season, got hot late, won their wild-card game and is now carryin a ton of momentum with them into this week. The other played great in the regular season, thereby earning a bye and as a result losing the hype and expectations that come with a win in the playoffs. But who’s to say the Steelers (or Giants for that matter) don’t have any momentum of their own. Confidence is a form of momentum, and Pittsburgh has no reason not to feel confident at this point. And it’s foolish to underestimate the power of an extra week’s rest during an NFL season, especially when it comes in Week 18. Oh and did I mention the Steelers happen to be really, really good? They are very much like the Colts of 2006 – a great team that usually gets plenty of publicity, but went through the entire regular season under the radar because all they did was win – no drama, no streaks, no controversy.

Prediction: Chargers 17, Steelers 24