NFL Week 15 – Odds, Injuries, Key Matchups

It seems like just yesterday the Bills were 4-0 and your bankroll was so fat it was going to be plasma-screens and Wiis for everyone this Christmas. But now it’s Week 15 and the Bills are relegated to playing spoiler and thanks to Polamalu’s touchdown that wasn’t, that 4-teamer that hinged on the Jets actually making it onto the plane to the West Coast and that always sound “the Lions are due” logic,  it’s time to print out another batch of Human Fund donation cards.

With that, let’s take a look at some of the key matchups this week including an all-defense showdown between the Ravens and Steelers (so of course you know it’s going way over the number), a critical game in the division nobody cares about between the Bucs and Falcons and a sunday night matchup between two teams we all know way too much about – Cowboys vs. Giants.

Injuries

 

Here are some of the key injuries for Week 15

• Brandon Jacobs – Out (knee)

• Frank Gore – Questionable (ankle). Singletary said today it would be a game-time decision, but it doesn’t look good.

• Marion Barber – Questionable (toe). Although, if you ask Jerry Jones, he’s fully healthy and just a big wuss.

• Daunte Culpepper – Out (shoulder). Don’t know if this really counts as a key injury, but oh well.

• Fred Taylor – Out (thumb)

Go here for a full, league-wide injury report

 

 

Key Matchups

Note: Check out our home page or NFL Spreads page For free, live odds on every NFL game, all season long.

 

TB vs. Atl

Line:

Atlanta -3

Game Time:

1:00pm ET

Weather:

Dome

Head-to-Head:

TB has won 3 straight. TB won 24-7 at home on 9/24 in first meeting this year.

Trends:

• NFC South home teams have won all 10 division games so far this season

• TB is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 December games

• Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss

• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite

• Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Atl.

Game Notes:

Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives after losses last week to divisional opponents (Tampa Bay lost to Carolina and Atlanta to New Orleans). Atlanta has played great at home this season, as have all NFC South teams, and Michael Turner should be licking his chops after seeing Carolina run up more than 300 yards on the ground last week against the Bucs. Tampa does have one major factor in their favor – experience. The Bucs have a banged up, but big-game tested quarterback in Jeff Garcia and a veteran defense. Matt Ryan has made Falcons fans forget all about the nightmare that was the past two years, but this could be the game in which he plays like a rookie and tries to do too much.

Pit vs. Bal

Line:

Baltimore -3

Game Time:

4:15pm ET

Weather:

Partly Cloudy, 45 degrees, Wind S at 13mph

Head-to-Head:

9/29/08: Bal 20 – Pit 23

12/30/07: Pit 21 – Bal 27

11/05/07: Bal 7 – Pit 38

Trends:

• Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

• Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games

• Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a road underdog of .5 – 3.0

• Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite

• Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Baltimore

Game Notes:

You can just see the pregame montage CBS is going to put together for this one. Scary music over shots of Ray Lewis, Polamalu and all the other defensive standouts in this matchup. But depite all the justified hype about the two defenses, this one could very well come down to quarterback play. just like the Tampa/Atlanta game, this game features a banged-up, veteran qb against a rookie playing well beyond expectations. It looks like the weather is going to relatively decent, so Flacco and Big Ben can’t just get away with handing the ball off and hoping their respective defense makes a big play. This is a major heat-check game for Baltimore and a potential playoff preview. If Flacco can keep his poise, I think the trend of the home team winning will continue.

NYG vs. Dal

Line:

Dallas -3

Game Time:

8:15pm ET

Weather:

Dome

Head-to-Head:

11/02/08: Dal 14 – NYG 35

01/13/08: NYG 21 – Dal 17

11/11/07: Dal 31 – NYG 20

09/09/07: NYG 35 – Dal 45

Trends:

• Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss

• Giants are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog

• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC opponents

• Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games

Game Notes:

Last week it was the Giants who had to deal with an off-field distraction and that led to a lackluster performance against the Eagles. This week, the Cowboys have had yet another week of T.O. drama, not to mention plenty of questions about their 4th quarter meltdown against the Steelers. The Giants will be without starting RB Brandon Jacobs, but they still have a strong running game and have proven they are the best road team in the NFL. If this was a couple weeks ago, I’d say Dallas was a good bet to defend their home turf, but with all the injuries and distractions, and their performance last week, I just don’t see it.

Cle at Phi (Monday Night)

Line:

Philadelphia -14

Game Time:

8:30pm ET (Monday)

Weather:

Partly Cloudy, 47 degrees, Wind from the South at 12mph

Head-to-Head:

8/10/06: Cle 7 – Phi 20

10/24/04: Phi 34 - Cle 31

Trends:

• Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog

• Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog

• Browns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall

• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games

Game Notes:

This one is pretty simple. Forget the trends, forget the player matchups. Ken Dorsey is starting for an already bad Browns team and the Eagles are at home and have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. Two touchdowns is a lot to lay on a team that could only tie the Bengals. But Dorsey will not be able to move the ball and Westbrook looks relatively healthy, so look for the Eagles to cover this one with relative ease.